My annual prediction contest
I’ve been running an annual prediction contest for the last few years. In December, I come up with a list of 10–20 things which may or may not happen in the following year. Participants will assign a probability to each prediction. At the end of the year, we can see whose predictions were best.
I like finding out how well you actually understand the world, and getting an insight into others’ understanding of the world. Even people who disagree on their interpretation of world events can come together for the contest, using it as a way to learn about each other’s perspectives as well as compare the accuracy of their respective world views. You also get to compare your current understanding of the world with your past understanding, which can change substantially within a year.
It started as a single spreadsheet and me as the only participant. Over the years, it’s evolved through online forms and shared spreadsheets to a custom-built website which handles authentication, prediction submission and results presentation. Even the custom website has been implemented twice, originally in Java and more recently in Go.
The new website is available at predictions.toddljones.com.
If you like the idea, please sign up on the website above and submit your predictions for 2026.